- NTSync coming in Kernel 6.11 for better Wine/Proton game performance and porting.
- Wine-Wayland last 4/5 parts left to be merged before end of 2024
- Wayland HDR/Game color protocol will be finished before end of 2024
- Nvidia 555/560 will be out for a perfect no stutter Nvidia performance
- KDE/Gnome reaching stability and usability with NO FKN ADS
- VR being usable
- More Wine development and more Games being ported
- Better LibreOffice/Word compatibility
- Windows 10 coming to EOL
- Improved Linux simplicity and support
- Web-native apps (Including Msft Office and Adobe)
- .Net cross platform (in VSCode or Jetbrains Rider)
What else am I missing?
- A non-AI generated image - it communicates to artists that they’re not welcome, while Linux is getting there in support for artists (Krita, LMMS, etc.).
- A debugger with a GUI - no, I don’t care about writing shell scripts to automate debugging.
- Server-side decorations on Gnome - just add an option for it FFS!
- A way to easily recover from a crash during an update - I was lucky that I could do it from the command line, but my Ubuntu still likes to crash the VM host if I open Nautilus.
- Drivers.
- Linux devs not throwing a temper tantrum for a driver not being GPL. I know, that would be the ideal, but corporations gonna corporate.
Also web-native apps are a web 2.0 mistake, and lead to the abandonment of many portable GUI frameworks in favor of the “what if your pops didn’t had to install Word Processor, and instead just had to type wordprocessor.com into his browser” idea of some techbro. Do you know why your ÜBERGAMERMOUSE Ultrautility is 250+MB? Because they’re all Electron apps!
You forgot “Recall”.
I wanted to make a wordplay here, but I couldn’t find one.
Anyway, a lot of people are worried about the OS remembering everything you are doing like it’s taking screenshots all the time.
For my part, that would be a big no-no.
…until a botched update or a bug sends everything to the cloud, MS makes an about face saying oops my bad, then say it was fixed.
Of course it’s on-device. Microsoft is doing all the processing on people’s PCs, rather than their own servers, where they’d have to pay for that computation.
Data still gets reported to MS afterwards.
It must communicate with Microsoft in a way, just by the fact the “AI” must not “hallucinates” by suggesting the user to jump from a bridge or to add Glue in his pizza…
What is the bridge jumping bit about?
“On-device” has to be a half-true at best. I’m having a hard time believing that the NPUs on these new ARM chips are powerful enough for it to be fully on-device. Even more-so with “approved” x86 chips. There has to be some data sharing between the client and server, similar to how Rabbit does their shit.
Look up TPUs, like a coral tensor. Extremely efficient at machine learning, only, and cheap. If NPUs use anything like a TPU, then it absolutely can do local “AI.” Then once the heavy lifting is done, then I’d imagine all that data is uploaded.
Recall does things that weirdly, a malware would have done back in the day.
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You’re arguing about naming conventions, though. If you want to refer to Linux as Linux Kernel that’s fine, if a bit pedantic, but then you should be very strict about sticking to a separate name for the ecosystem of OSS Linux distros for desktops and laptops.
I haven’t once thought of Android or ChromeOS as Linux, for the same reasons I have never once thought of Linux as Unix or MS-DOS as a PC DOS version. If we’re going to conflate Linux with its proprietary alternatives let’s just call it something else. Dinux? There you go.
Dinux has all those problems you outlined in your first post, I agree.
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You used a bunch of words but you aren’t saying much new.
Again, those differences are meaningful. It makes sense to have a different name for it. You can lump it and MacOS and Android as a singular family of OSs, but they’re clearly different products with different branding and different functionality.
You’re also ignoring how much all of those “succesful Linux” non-Linux systems are tied to hadware, which is ultimately the issue. The terminal isn’t as much of a dealbreaker as the Linux community makes it out to be (and neither is the UX not being identical to Windows, BTW). The problem is the lack of hardware support and the finicky configurations, terminal or no terminal. Steam OS, all the flavors of Android and Chrome OS are all customized to the hardware they ship with and work well with it. In all cases the hardware is locked and it doesn’t need much readjusting, and when it does it’s often through a live support update system.
And yes, I have thought of ChromeOS as Linux, don’t be patronizing. I am saying it’s not the same as the desktop-focused Linux distros that are trying to support modular PC hardware in the way Windows does. Because it isn’t.
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It’s roughly consistent with Steam survey data, and given the current context, Linux Steam users are heavily incentivized to contribute to the survey. The numbers are what they are.
Plus the guy’s argument is that relevant data sources separate ChromeOS out because it’s substantially different, which is a fair point, regardless of the accuracy of the data.
There’s absolutely zero reason to expect Linux mass adoption as it is NOT happening anytime soon. What can happen instead is increased market share to something like 10% and even that is super optimistic from a long time user perspective.
The focus should mainly go to relatively technical users that can at least manage basic stuff and not mass market consumers. It’s good when people try Linux, yes, but it’s even better when they find it useful, it does what they need and they keep using it, not just trying and go back to a primarily supported OS that’s maybe invasive but “at least it works”.
The future of computing is not computers. Computers, by and large, are trending down. There is already mass adoption of Linux. Android. Steam decks.
Computers with keyboards and mice are increasingly obsolete. Fighting for market share there is like trying to become the biggest vendor of sailing boats in the steamer era.
PC computers were already replaced for different use cases so yes, the market shrunk, but they will stay relevant for many others for a long time. Simple tasks can easily be achieved with super convenient rectangles that are effectively computers with different input methods, but they just won’t cut it for anything more complex like 3D modeling, CAD, video editing etc. 30 years ago it was impressive when PCs could hold a large collection of digital music with instantaneous access to all of it. Now it’s just plain irrelevant, as basically all music known to human can be accessed from anywhere with just a handy rectangle. But then even relatively simple tasks like doing taxes is a daunting task on a smartphone, and only a tiny bit more convenient on a tablet.
Of course at some point computers with completely different input and output methods can put all we know today into obsolescence, but I think we’re not even close. Some may say that VR headsets will be the thing, but personally I don’t believe so. While having virtual 3D viewport is fun and games, people seem to ignore what it takes away. Simple things like being able to see the same thing on a screen by multiple people without some video sinks between headsets or ability to interact with things without having to wear helmet or putting anything on (however lightweight it is), would be gone. Don’t get me wrong, they can certainly have their place and things they’re really good or the best at, but it’s just not going to easily replace more traditional input methods. More likely something like holographic displays paired with motion sensors recognizing body movement or some shit
Desktop computing is transitioning from mainstream to niche. Increasingly, “normal” computing is phone, tablet, and web. Normal people increasingly use desktops as big screens for the web.
Linux is a great platform for people to access their applications on the web. It is a good option at this point to give to your aging parents to grand parents the next time you have to setup a computer for them.
The other people buying desktops are buying them for things like gaming or dev. These are more technical audiences as you suggest. Gamers are a certain kind of technical though. We are almost at the point with Linux that gaming could go mainstream. I think it already makes a good ( perhaps the best ) dev platform.
Where Linux is worst is probably “technical” Windows users as these are the desktop people that are going to have specific needs and organizations that Linux may not meet. Part of the problem with Linux is that this is the group it has been targeting. That has led to a lot of desktop complexity.
Don’t get me wrong. I am one of the people taking advantage of and contributing to the diversity and complexity of the Linux desktop. That is not helping it make the jump to mainstream desktop users though.
Tl;Dr “I want my~ I want my~ I want my NixOS~”. Yes, I am that old. Shut up.
I love the enthusiasm… but I must disagree :( unfortunately, much to my sheegrin bacuse I want to spite Linux commenter on this sub so badly because they are a bunch of brogrammers, but for me the year of the Linux desktop has to happen at the hands of device manufacturers. “Monopoly-by-default” is real, always has been, and never ever really left. Don’t take your eyes off Microsoft or Apple for one second - the bastards - because when you do, you fall into the vendor lock-in trap.
I personally think the EU should publish a bespoke bootloader with a gallery of operating systems that can be fetched using PXE, with image signing and checking of course, sort of like the “browser choice” alternative for OS’s. It doesn’t need to be the main bootloader, but it has to be available - and most likely GRUB2… because GRUB2 is everywhere. It’s what boots MacOS on M* machines. It’s the one boot loader to rule them all. What I’m saying is we’re in the year of GRUB2.
Anyways, outside my ideal there’s really nothing that will bring the “year of the Linux desktop” popularity wise, besides a large vendor relying on the actual Linux desktop stack - which is possible, but there’s probably a reason why Samsung bet on Enlightenment, and it’s not because it’s creator is so enlightened. MIT spelt in South Korean translates to MINE.
One thing 2024 has also stood for is cleaning house. GNOME was caught breaking their own strict rules, KDE keeps ironing out the ancient from the Plasma desktop paradigm, though now KWin has better Wayland support than Mutter for some reason, even though one has had Wayland support for years (a real tortoise and the hare situation this), and people are obsessed with a display server that nobody develops for anymore. (XWayland is XWayland, not X11). So finally we’re in the year of Wayland. Good bye, screen tearing. Hello breaking with protocol and causing screen corruption. Oy vey.
In regards to developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, and developers, then I look at the Rust stack, I look at the Zed stack, even the C# stack, or even a certain GUI framework with its own IDE built entirely using its own Emscripten SDK (can’t remember the name for the life of me). Here I see some new ways of doing the same thing and creating cross-platform solutions from the get-go, that might bring in new products and services on the Linux side.
But we already have access to more private and public services in software form on Linux than ever before before, so maybe the year of the Linux desktop passed us by but as a lackluster metric and Linux as a desktop (or LaaD as I’d like to call it, because I’m a moron) really won’t be popularized until one of the major vendor completely screws the Pooch, and then someone brings a solution based on the Linux stack. Come on, Copilot+ and System76…
Also, NixOS is finally trying to fix it’s issues, which is great, because Nix could realistically be a reproducible stack across systems, which can be tested by spitting out a single flake file. I see it as an addition to Flatpaks, Snaps and even AppImages. I want to petition Ableton to bring Live Linux, because I know in my heart of hearts that they’ve hired people with NixOS experience and that the Push 3 standalone needs some form of OS. But NixOS is a perfect example of why people are asking what happened to the year of the CoC’s? Maybe we can do a reboot.
So in conclusion, I’m over here waiting for the year of NixOS, which will be a lackluster event where nobody is happy with, most likely celebrated by another institutional figure having to walk it off. See you in 10-15 years.
It is a good list ( from an “alternative to Windows” point of view ). In particular, you make a good case for the gaming side of things.
Unfortunately, even if that is all Linux needs, the hordes take time to arrive. The big impact of changes this year will be seen in the migration numbers 3 years from now. The biggest opportunity is probably the Windows 10 EOL and that is not until the end of next year. By then, many gamers will have Windows 11 capable hardware.
I do think that gamers and devs are the two groups likely to lead the charge on the next wave of Linux adoption. .NET dev in particular already has a lot of momentum on Linux with the transition from desktop to cloud and the primacy of Linux in container based workflows. Things are not quite there yet for .NET mobile dev on Linux. I bet most .NET devs that have left Windows are using Macs these days though. That said, that means they are already using tooling quite easily migrated to Linux including bath Rider and VS Code as you say. In the cloud, .NET must be “deployed” more to Linux than to Windows by now.
That last point is the most important I think. Windows is no longer the most important platform for Microsoft—Azure is. Microsoft is quite happy to let you use Linux on Azure. In fact, Azure pipelines and .NET itself are faster on Linux at this point. It is still “developers, developers, developers” for Microsoft but it is now more cloud than desktop. That changes the role of Windows at Microsoft.
I think it is perhaps less what we think about Windows and more about what Microsoft thinks about Windows that matters.
The other crown jewel is Office. Office 365 is a subscription. It is increasingly a “cloud” offering as well. Soon, they will not care about Windows as a delivery vehicle for Office either.
As Windows starts to matter less strategically, the question will increasingly be how to monetize the Windows user base more heavily. That is more ads, more data mining, more AI, and an increasingly crap experience. More and more, Windows Product Managers will be rewarded for their short-term gains and incremental revenue. Stewardship of the platform will move further and further into the background.
That is how Linux will win.
It won’t be this year though.
I’ve noticed a LOT of pushback against the ads in MS shit. Microsoft has become greedy (well what am I saying, they’ve always been, kist really effin more greedy now) and somehow seems to invest even less in development. All Microsoft apps I see today are just painfully painfully bad. Again, not that they’ve ever been particularly good at anything besides keyboards, but lately it’s been comically worse.
I’ve seen Linux desktop grow significantly now, and I really do see it happen that Linux crosses that threshold where there is just no more stopping it
What else am I missing?
Mostly just that these aren’t the things preventing people from switching.
Get pre-installed Linux hardware on storefronts at Costco, Best Buy, Walmart, etc. That’s when things will change.
Dethrones? No. Not in the sense it will overtake Windows in numbers.
Grows its gamer ‘market share’? Absolutely.
STOP
I think it’s going to take a Microsoft catastrophe, something that disables machines for at least a few days. I’m thinking maybe a buggy windows update.
Or a forced update to windows 11 on machine that doesn’t support it. That would break the windows install for good. Either they will find a way to install windows again or take it to somebody who installs windows on it again. Maybe maybe they’ll find out about Linux.
So what happened with Bing a few hours ago but for end-users…
Meanwhile total recall happening with AI+Copilot
But there’s also the Google Office Suite as another online office suite in addition to Office 365
You know that’s not what “native” means, right?Nevermind, me moron can not read.Web native.
I missed that, my bad.
- Nvidia 555/560 will be out for a perfect no stutter Nvidia performance
God I really hope that’ll be true.
They might just stop using computers
Back to the 80s/early 90s where the only people using computers were the ones that actually knew how to use computers? Hell yes, take me back.
That is indeed more likely than them switching to Linux.
Us computer nerds don’t understand that because we live our lives surrounded by computers, but there are plenty of households that don’t even have a computer, let alone one they want to switch to a niche OS.
Yes smartphones and tablets have replaced desktops for most general users.
They can’t handle the Linux!
that AI-generated file really wasn’t necessary
