This isn’t meant to be a discussion on the morality of the embargo, but the affects of the embargo ending for both countries. These affects can be political, economic, or social.
I wonder how many poor retirees would consider it if the options are living in a modest apartment in Cuba surrounded by a great health care system versus shitting in a bucket in a van down by the river.
Massive inequality growth in Cuba
The US economy is so gigantic compared to Cuba’s that I don’t see it changing much at all for the US—maybe some medical advancements. For Cuba it would mean being able to acquire goods at more reasonable rates and probably a much bigger tourist trade if they’re not careful. Edit and better internet, I hear that’s important.
It would improve living standards and mortality rates for Cuban citizens.
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For the US, the change would be minimal. The economy of Cuba is so small by comparison and they don’t have a heavy industry or tech sector to offer much to the US economy. Most outflows of money would likely be in tourism by US citizens to Cuba. And maybe some businesses would find ways to offshore some work. But again, I think the overall impact would be small.
As for Cuba, it really depends on the Cuban Government. Trade with the US and tourism are likely to have a much larger impact (as a percentage of GDP) on Cuba. The country could well see a sizeable influx of foreign cash. Managed well, this could create a lot of opportunity for the Cuban people. Managed by a corrupt regime, intent on enriching itself and it’s friends, this could lead to the same type of misery which usually results from corrupt government.
For the US, the change would be minimal.
If you ignore the fact that it’d probably be cheaper to fly to Cuba to receive medical treatment than to pay for a hospital in the US, sure.
Even during the ‘open’ Obama years, tourism for Americans was severely limited by the lack of banking interchange between US banks and Cuban ATMs and credit card networks. You have to bring cash and use a currency exchange, and if you run out you have no way of getting more money from your American bank. Other countries’ networks don’t have this issue, but it would need to be fixed for Americans to visit and spend money.
I’m glad the internal currencies of CUC vs CUP have been resolved, though a massive influx of tourist dollars would strain the existing economic systems of Cubans being paid for jobs other than tourism.
I’m thinking about a holiday there - friends who’ve been really enjoyed it. The beaches, the food, the music. https://www.onthebeach.co.uk/destinations/caribbean/cuba
Vietnam was embargoed until the 90s, and dropping it basically allowed the soft power of the US to do it’s thing. 'Nam isn’t really an ally of the US, they consider themselves neutral, but they’re undeniably very friendly. I suspect that a generation of trade and tourism could do the same to our relationship with Cuba and might result in softening attitudes among Cuban-Americans as they reestablish contact with their families and reconcile lingering animosity from the revolution.
I think this would also work for the DPRK, Iran, and others. Trade is really nice and children are rarely willing to carry the grudges of their parents.
Does Desi Arnaz (a Cuban) and Lucille Ball (an American) have to do with this subject?
If not, then I probably brought it up out of nowhere because I watched I Love Lucy before.
No. It is due to the Cuban protests.
Heheheh, right. I missed the subject. :P
It would be interesting if they had an “I Love Lucy” experience in Havana as a tourist trap.
I have no idea, but I’d be stocking up on cigars like a motherfuck. Trump putting the kibosh on bringing Cuban cigars back into the US still chaps my ass.
Significant improvement in the quality of life of Cubans. Probably also increase US tourism to Cuba. Not sure if it would have any real impact on the average US citizen.
Some have mentioned medical tourism. Could an industry grow around that? Would American insurance programs start covering work done in Cuba?
Mass medical tourism and the collapse of the corporativist medical industry in the US.
Who do you think will build resort hotels?
100% TAS Key West - Varadero swimming speedrun NO COSMIC RAYS
How many sporting events might take advantage of the Key West-Havana corridor?
Just to shine light on something positive for the US, it could be a good thing for American rice growers as Cuba could possibly become large buyer of USA rice
I would also expect American pork to be big in Cuba as well.
It’s a small economic quirk, but I imagine many Cubans would be selling their old American cars to collectors State-side for a quick cash influx.
And Americans would be eager to travel to Cuba for tropical tourism. That feels like a longer lasting economic change.
Of course there’d be a bubble market on Cuban cigars that would arise, climb, then settle as the demand declines as the idea of a Cuban cigar becomes more normalized.
I’ve heard Cuba has some novel treatments for lung cancer. I imagine there’d be a market for medical tourism that would emerge from that, as I sincerely doubt the FDA would evaluate and approve a foreign treatment created under a Communist government with any haste.
Do you think medical tourism would become big?
I think that largely depends on how easy it becomes for Americans to travel to Cuba. I imagine there’d be a bubble for most economic exchanges in the get go, but after it would normalize more.
I’m not really sure what constitutes “big” or how large the medical tourism industry is, say, between Mexico and the US, but I know it exists.
I’ve heard that Cuban healthcare is very good, but I’m unsure how accessible it would be to Americans. Being an American, I really don’t know much about Cuba… but I’ve heard a few general things.
I was curious about that lung cancer treatment and found this Snopes article. Sounds like in Cuba it’s demonstrated that it can add several months to some people’s lives after they’re diagnosed with lung cancer. Phase II clinical trials are underway in the US as of last year, and preliminary results show particular success in combination with other existing treatments. They’ve expanded the trial to cover some other forms of cancer too
Whoa! Thanks for the info, that’s really cool
Aren’t cubans still banned from using the real money?
I think Cuba uses the Cuban peso, the real hasn’t been in use for centuries.
There was a cuban peso and convertible peso, but apparently they’ve been merged 3 years ago. So the sanctions probably are the main barrier to free trade now.
